How Does Pathways Calculate Expected Performance?

To calculate expected performances for each student and class, Pathways compiles assessment results from the past year’s state test, broken down by baseline groups.

For example, these numbers were calculated from the 2022 MAAP (MS state test) 6th Grade Math test:
Baseline: The Performance Level on the math state test from 2021.
Percent: The average percentage correct that each of those baseline performance levels scored on the 2022 state test.
Proficiency: The average proficiency level that each of the baseline performance levels scored on the 2022 state test.
Growth: The average growth that each baseline performance level achieved on the 2022 math state test.

From this data, Pathways assigns each student an expected test result based on their baseline (previous year’s) performance level. An example of these expected performance levels can be found below:
Expected Averages: By taking the average of each student’s expected results, Pathways calculates the expected results for classrooms.

The power in these calculations stems from the comparison of “expected” performance to “actual” performance. An example of this comparison can be found below:

Expected vs. Actual performance can be viewed by grade level, classroom, or student for state tests, Benchmarks, and Snapshot assessments. In Pathfinder, the calculated comparison of “Expected” vs. “Actual” looks like this:

Pathways also calculates expectations for each item based on baseline performance level data. For example, the following is the percentage of students from each baseline performance level that answered item #1 on the 6th Grade Math Benchmark accurately:

These calculations can be seen for each student in the list of their missed questions, found in Student Tracker. By sorting the list of missed questions with the Pathways Average, Davian’s teacher can see which items other students at Davian’s baseline performance level were most likely to get correct and prioritize those items for review: 

In the same manner, Pathways also calculates expected results by standard for each baseline performance level. Those calculations show up in Pathfinder’s Mastery Zone. With these calculated percentages, Davian’s teacher can see which standards other students at Davian’s baseline performance level were most likely to master and prioritize these standards for review: